Bonds and interest rates have an inverse correlation: as interest rates increase, bond prices fall. However, the more the Federal Reserve hikes interest rates, the better news potentially for municipal bond investors.
Municipal bonds (or “munis”), long touted as among the safest, most tax-efficient debt investments available, were hit hard in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis as interest rates fell close to zero, and they were considered a low-yielding investment for many years. Let’s see why munis can be more attractive to investors after interest rates have risen.
- Bond prices and interest rates are inversely correlated, and municipal bonds (i.e. debt securities issued by state and local gov’ts) are no different.
- Munis, however, have some unique advantages for investors to take advantage of after an interest hike.
- Investors should keep in mind the 5 points explained below to see if a muni bond investment is right when interest rates increase.
How Interest Rates Affect Bond Prices
One of the most important concepts to understand when investing in bonds of any type is the effect of interest rate changes on bond prices. Because bonds are issued with interest rates, called coupon rates, based on the current federal funds rate, changes to interest rates initiated by the Federal Reserve can cause the values of existing bonds to increase or decrease.
For example, if a current bond is issued with a coupon rate of 4%, the value of the bond automatically decreases if interest rates rise and a new bond with identical terms is issued with a 6% coupon. This reduction in market value occurs to compensate investors for purchasing a bond with lower interest payments than newly issued bonds. Conversely, if interest rates decline and new bonds were issued with 2% rates, the market value of the original bond increases.
Typically, longer-term bonds carry higher coupon rates than short-term bonds because the default and interest rate risk inherent in all bond investments increases with time. This simply means the longer you hold a bond, the more risk there is of interest rate changes rendering your bond less valuable or the issuing entity defaulting on its obligations, leaving the bond unpaid. However, if you invest in highly rated municipal bonds and do not need to access your investment funds for several years, long-term bonds can be a very lucrative investment when purchased at the right time.
1. Higher Coupon Rates
The most obvious benefit of investing in municipal bonds after the rate hike is coupon rates on newly issued bonds are substantially higher than current bonds. New bonds issued after rates rise generate more interest income each month relative to previously issued securities, making them lucrative investments for those looking to supplement their annual income.
As always, longer-term bonds still carry higher rates than short-term securities because of the increased inflation and credit risk. However, long-term municipal bonds, especially general obligation bonds, can be extremely safe if issued by a highly rated municipality.
2. Greater Variety of Bonds
Another benefit of purchasing municipal bonds after the Fed hikes interest rates is the number of bonds on the market is likely to increase. When interest rates are low, the cost of borrowing money from banks, through loans and lines of credit, is often cheaper than the cost of issuing bonds. However, once interest rates rise and the cost of borrowing increases, bonds become the more attractive financing option.
When a municipality issues bonds, its only responsibility is to repay investors according to the terms of bond. Conversely, there can be numerous strings attached to money borrowed from banks.
3. Potential for Appreciation if Rates Decline
In addition to their healthy coupon rates, bonds issued after a rate hike are likely to increase in value down the road. If the Fed increases rates rapidly, the next substantial interest rate change is likely to be a reduction, since interest rates change in cycles.
If interest rates decline a few years into the future, the value of bonds issued when rates were at their peak is higher, giving investors the option to sell their bonds on the open market for a tidy profit rather than waiting for them to mature.
4. Lower Prices on Existing Bonds
Though municipal bonds issued after a rate hike carry higher interest rates than current bonds, this means older bonds become extremely affordable. Given that until 2022, interest rates have been at historic lows for several years, existing bonds are likely to be purchasable at bargain-basement prices to compensate investors for the opportunity cost of investing in lower-yield bonds.
This could provide an opportunity for investors to purchase highly rated municipal bonds cheaply.
5. Greater Tax Savings
The chief benefit of investing in municipal bonds at any time is they earn interest that is not subject to federal income taxes. In addition, if you purchase bonds issued in your state or city of residence, your earnings may also be exempt from state or local taxes. If you purchase municipal bonds after interest rates rise, the amount you save on income taxes is even greater.
Even long-term gains earned on investments held longer than one year are subject to capital gains rates of up to 20%. Ordinary income tax rates go up to 37% in the tax year 2022, so earning investment income that is not subject to federal taxes can mean a significant boost in after-tax returns.